Monday, July 27, 2015

Joc Pederson-Worst Leadoff Hitter Ever?

It is hard to know what is going on inside a baseball manager's head. If that manager is Don Mattingly, it is impossible to understand many of the decisions he makes. One of the big decisions he has made over the past few months is to make Joc Pederson the leadoff hitter on a daily basis. Since taking Jimmy Rollins out of the leadoff role early in the season, Joc Pederson has led off more than 90% of Dodger games. However, while entering the leadoff spot with an above .300 average his average has consistently gone down until reaching the .230 mark where it has been hovering for the past few weeks. Not only has his average been dropping, but his strikeout rate has skyrocketed. Pederson is towards the top of the league in strikeouts, just a few less than the major league leader. No one else in the top 15 in the majors is the primary leadoff hitter for their team. Above all else, over half of the time in the last few weeks, Pederson has led off the first inning with a strikeout. If your leadoff hitter is not even able to make contact with the ball, how is your offense going to score any runs early in the game? His clutchness, in terms of hitting with runners on and with runners in scoring position is not any better either. And if he does get on base, unlike most leadoff hitters Pederson has done a terrible job on the base path. In eight attempts, he has stolen just two bases all year, least of all primary leadoff hitters in the league. Finally, out of Pederson's 79 total hits at this point in the season, 21 of them are home runs. That means more than a quarter of his hits have been over the fence, and yes since he is the leadoff hitter, most of his home runs have not driven anybody else in.

Taking his low average, poor stolen base percentage, high strikeout rate, and high home run to hit ratio, Joc Pederson seems like the worst candidate to be leading off for a major league ballclub. He has been able to walk a lot though and has a decent on-base percentage, but those alone do not really make him the best leadoff candidate. After all, out of the eight primary starters on the Dodgers, he has the fifth highest on-base percentage. With all of this information into account, it is near impossible to figure out why Don Mattingly day in and day out pencils Pederson in the leadoff spot in the Dodger's lineup. This past Sunday's game was a great example of Pederson's struggles and how they affect the team. While he has been an above average fielder for the most part, his error helped lead to the first run Zach Greinke allowed in over 45 innings. Meanwhile at the plate Pederson went 0-5 and no at bat was worse than his final one. He came up in the tenth inning with Jimmy Rollins at third and just one out in a 2-2 tie. And you guessed it, he struck out, and the Dodgers would fail to score and ended up losing the game 3-2. He might only be a rookie, but if he is going to be a starter on a team with championship aspirations, then he has to improve his game or be removed from the leadoff role. Regardless of Mattingly's reasons for appointing him as the leadoff hitter, it cannot continue if the Dodgers want to win their division and make it to the World Series.

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