Monday, July 27, 2015

Joc Pederson-Worst Leadoff Hitter Ever?

It is hard to know what is going on inside a baseball manager's head. If that manager is Don Mattingly, it is impossible to understand many of the decisions he makes. One of the big decisions he has made over the past few months is to make Joc Pederson the leadoff hitter on a daily basis. Since taking Jimmy Rollins out of the leadoff role early in the season, Joc Pederson has led off more than 90% of Dodger games. However, while entering the leadoff spot with an above .300 average his average has consistently gone down until reaching the .230 mark where it has been hovering for the past few weeks. Not only has his average been dropping, but his strikeout rate has skyrocketed. Pederson is towards the top of the league in strikeouts, just a few less than the major league leader. No one else in the top 15 in the majors is the primary leadoff hitter for their team. Above all else, over half of the time in the last few weeks, Pederson has led off the first inning with a strikeout. If your leadoff hitter is not even able to make contact with the ball, how is your offense going to score any runs early in the game? His clutchness, in terms of hitting with runners on and with runners in scoring position is not any better either. And if he does get on base, unlike most leadoff hitters Pederson has done a terrible job on the base path. In eight attempts, he has stolen just two bases all year, least of all primary leadoff hitters in the league. Finally, out of Pederson's 79 total hits at this point in the season, 21 of them are home runs. That means more than a quarter of his hits have been over the fence, and yes since he is the leadoff hitter, most of his home runs have not driven anybody else in.

Taking his low average, poor stolen base percentage, high strikeout rate, and high home run to hit ratio, Joc Pederson seems like the worst candidate to be leading off for a major league ballclub. He has been able to walk a lot though and has a decent on-base percentage, but those alone do not really make him the best leadoff candidate. After all, out of the eight primary starters on the Dodgers, he has the fifth highest on-base percentage. With all of this information into account, it is near impossible to figure out why Don Mattingly day in and day out pencils Pederson in the leadoff spot in the Dodger's lineup. This past Sunday's game was a great example of Pederson's struggles and how they affect the team. While he has been an above average fielder for the most part, his error helped lead to the first run Zach Greinke allowed in over 45 innings. Meanwhile at the plate Pederson went 0-5 and no at bat was worse than his final one. He came up in the tenth inning with Jimmy Rollins at third and just one out in a 2-2 tie. And you guessed it, he struck out, and the Dodgers would fail to score and ended up losing the game 3-2. He might only be a rookie, but if he is going to be a starter on a team with championship aspirations, then he has to improve his game or be removed from the leadoff role. Regardless of Mattingly's reasons for appointing him as the leadoff hitter, it cannot continue if the Dodgers want to win their division and make it to the World Series.

Monday, July 20, 2015

Top NBA Free Agents Left

A few weeks into NBA free agency, nearly every major free agent has agreed to a new deal. There have been some great stories (Deandre Jordan flip flopping) some big deals with new teams (Lamarcus Aldridge to the Spurs) and many players resigning with their old teams (Marc Gasol, Tim Duncan, Dwyane Wade). While most free agents have found a new deal, there are many still out there looking for a team to join. Teams that are looking to round out their roster have many players to choose from over the summer. However, just like it always is many players will have to wait a long time, maybe even forever to come back to the NBA.

Free Agents Who Could Sign for More Than the Minimum

1. Tristan Thompson-A restricted free agent who is almost certainly coming back to Cleveland, but they have not been able to agree on a deal. Sometime in the next couple of months he will sign a new deal with the Cavaliers though and return to a team headed back to the championship.
2. Javale McGee-has showed a lot of skill in the past, but injuries the last couple of years limited him a lot. Was forgotten after getting traded last season, but if he shows maturity should get a nice deal with incentives.
3. Tyler Hansbrough-He was one of the greatest college players, but his NBA career has not gone nearly as well. After spending some time in Toronto, he could be a great addition to a team looking for a backup big man. His hard work and talent could translate well for a low price. (signed for minimum with Charlotte Hornets)
4. JR Smith-After a poor Finals performance Smith could be looking for a new team. Cleveland is reportedly still interested in bringing him back, but with his inconsistency maybe they shouldn't.
5. Tayshaun Prince-A longtime veteran and NBA champion, Prince would be a good veteran presence off the bench for a playoff team.
6. Matthew Dellavadova-After becoming a star due to his early Finals performance he will likely get a nice pay raise and if the Cavaliers can't give it to him, will take his talents somewhere else.
7. Kevin Seraphin-Has proven to be a good backup big man. Could fill a need for a few teams still looking to fill that position.
8. Norris Cole-He is a restricted free agent who is also a two time champion already in his young career (thanks to being drafted by Miami). He is a top backup point guard in this league and will find a team sooner rather than later.
9. Carlos Boozer-He has been on the decline the last few years especially after a lone disappointing season for the Lakers this past year, but could still be a veteran presence with scoring potential.
10. Glen Davis-If he doesn't return to the Clippers, he will have to find another team to provide a similar role. Doc Rivers trusted him more than any other big man off the bench last season.

Free Agents worth signing for the minimum

1. Jason Maxiell-still waiting for him to be what we though he could be
2. Michael Beasley-same with him, except he has shown flashes of greatness in small doses
3. Landry Fields- Was a top young man signed a long contract and disappeared, but maybe he will be back again? Just not in Toronto.
4. Donald Sloan-Helped the Pacers last year with Paul George out.
5. Reggie Evans-still one of the best rebounders and a good bench player
6. Darrell Arthur- A young big man will likely return to Denver, he has some high potential
7. Ish Smith-He is bouncing around the league, but worth taking a flyer on
8. Pablo Prigioni-Just got traded and then waived, still a good bench point guard at the end of his career (signed by the Clippers to be the third string point guard)
9. Emeka Okafor-was teamless last year recovering from injury. Needs a career revival and might be worth it, ten years ago he was the one of the best young players in the league.
10. Dorell Wright-Still looking to break through even in the latter of his career.

These guys should just retire now (like Shawn Marion did)

1. Elton Brand-made it a long time in the league, sadly it near the end
2. Jason Terry-Will probably return to the Rockets, but after that should retire
3. Jason Richardson-the last few years have been injury filled, but still had a nice career.
4. Hedo Turkoglu-Made some good money and played well, it is over for him though
5. Dahntay Jones-Lucky to get a gig last year, won't be so lucky next year
6. Nazr Mohammed-somehow made it this long, won't be surprised if he keeps going forever
7. Earl Barron-Only 34 but worth checking out His life and career
8. Andre Miller-Has made it far, had a great career and will always be a great passer
9. Willie Green-extended his career longer than most would think, great teammate.
10. Greg Oden-former number one pick plays less NBA games than Smush Parker. Injuries are tough

Oh he is a free agent, who is he?

1. Jerome Jordan
2. Ohnjen Kuzmic-He just won a ring, how many people knew that? (signed to play in Greece)
3. Ian Clark
4. Vander Blue
5. Travis Wear
6. Shayne Wittington
7. Arinze Onuako
8. Robbie Hummel
9. Henry Sims

Maybe He should play in Europe

1. Jeff Taylor (signed to play in Europe)
2. Greg Smith
3. Bernard James
4. John Lucas III
5. Ekpe Udoh (signed to play in Turkey)
6. Jimmer Fredette (signed with the Spurs)
7. Ryan Hollins
8. Jeff Ayres
9. Will Bynum
10. Jeff Withey

The Rest of 'Em

1. Glenn Robinson III-Has not lived up to the family name so far (signed with Pacers)
2. Rasual Butler-has put together a nice long career, might be done though
3. Chuck Hayes-will always be known as the midget center
4. Kendrick Perkins-he did play in the finals last year, but doesn't have much to give (signed for the minimum with New Orleans Pelicans)
5. Lester Hudson-from NBA to China and back. the pattern might continue
6. Chris Copeland-Has some talent, but maybe not enough (reportedly signed with Milwaukee Bucks)
7. Greg Stiemsma-has been a solid backup center at times, many teams already though so that limits him to where he can go next

There are a few other free agents out there, but this covers the large majority of them. It will be interesting to see where everyone else ends up by the start of the season. The question that will likely continue to be asked until the beginning of the season though is... What about Andrew Bynum?




Tuesday, July 7, 2015

What do the Clippers do Now?

Last weekend got off to a sad start for Clippers fans after finding out that DeAndre Jordan decided to sign with the Dallas Mavericks. It was an unexpected turn for the Clippers who were still disappointed from their early playoff exit. Even worse the Clippers have very little money they can spend and almost every big time free agent has already agreed to a new contract. The only players that will undoubtedly make a positive impact still available are Lebron James and Tristan Thompson; both of whom are expected to resign with the Cavaliers as soon as they agree on the finances. However, the Clippers do have a few choices amongst the many players still looking for a team. Here are some of the options the Clippers have to find a new starting center and to fill some of the holes they still have in their bench:

1. Hope an injured big man recovers well-There are a couple of big men coming off injury plagued seasons who, if fully recovered, have an opportunity to make a big contribution. The two guys who fit this category the best are Javale Mcgee and Emeka Okafor. Mcgee missed most of last season due to injury after missing much of the previous season due to injury. He was traded from the Denver Nuggets to the Phildelphia 76ers at the trade deadline, but was waived shortly thereafter and remained unsigned through the end of the season. The big man has made many clumsy and immature plays over the seasons, but the upside is high if he can remain healthy. Okafor meanwhile was not on any roster last season after spending the entire previous season injured on the Phoenix Suns bench. Okafor was one of the bright young stars when he first entered the league a decade ago, but has faded over the years. If he can come close to his younger self it will indeed be a great help for the Clippers. Either one of these guys would be a risk and the chances of even close to as much of success as Deandre Jordan had is slim. However, either one could likely sign for the league minimum so taking a chance would not be a disaster move.

2. Trade for a new big man-this is not very likely now that Roy Hibbert will be traded to the Lakers. Unless they can somehow connect to the Dallas Mavericks a sign and trade with Deandre Jordan is not very likely either now. However, the Clippers have rumored to be contemplating trading Jamal Crawford and they could land a decent big man using Crawford at the center of a trade. Lately, the Clippers were rumored to be intrigued in trading Crawford to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Brendan Haywood, but Haywood would not be a top tier starting center at this point in his career, and it's possible the Clippers would acquire him just so they could waive him and save money. There are not many other big men supposedly on the trading block around the league so it is not likely at this point the Clippers will trade for one, especially because they have such little room in terms of salary cap.

3. Sign a back up center or disappointing starting center and play him little minutes-the Clippers could spend a lot of time playing small ball next season with Blake Griffin as the biggest man on the court if they are not able to acquire a quality center. With the top tier big-man free agents already signed (other than Tristan Thompson who will resign with Cleveland at some point), the Clippers will have to accept signing one or two mediocre centers to hold the position down for at least one year. Some of those possibilities of remaining free agents are Andrea Bargnani who does not play defense and would be coming from the New York Knicks; basically meaning he ain't a good center and would not deserve to start. Also Amare Stoudemire who is really a power forward but has played center in the past. He is not a great defender either, but still has some game left. He is the big man I believe the Clippers will most likely sign. There's old friend Elton Brand, but no matter where he ends up this offseason it will be as a backup. It would be nice to see the Clippers bring him back for likely his final season as a backup big man. There is Glen Davis who has spent the last two seasons with the Clippers, but even if the Clippers bring him back, it will be in a reserve role. Also, Kendrick Perkins is available, but has no chance of being a starter. Other than Stoudemire, Perkins has the best chance of being signed by the Clippers considering Doc Rivers is his old coach, not to mention Paul Pierce is his old teammate as well. Tyler Hansbrough would be an interesting acquisition. He is one of the younger free agents as has some upside. If Doc Rivers wants to take on a project and put a tough big man in the middle, Hansbrough could be a good bet. Other guys who could come on as likely back ups are former Clipper (and many other teams' former) Reggie Evans, Joel Freeland, Chuck Hayes, Justin Hamilton, former Clipper Ryan Hollins, Jason Maxiell, Kevin Seraphin, Greg Stiemsma and last year's third string center Ekpe Udoh. It is almost guaranteed the Clippers sign at least one player from this list.

Whichever road the Clippers take, it will be difficult to improve on last season even with adding Paul Pierce and Lance Stephenson (and Wes Johnson, that's sarcasm) to the roster. The Western Conference is great and only one team from it can reach the Finals. The Clippers will have to be smart and get lucky to reach the Finals, but if Golden State could do it, why can't the Clippers?

Oh yeah, and there is always Andrew Bynum!

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

The Beginning of NBA Free Agency

Last night, the clock struck midnight along the east coast and hundreds of basketball players began to look for new jobs. July 1 for the NBA means the beginning of free agency when teams and players begin meeting and agreeing on contracts, even though they cannot officially sign a new contract for another week. This free agency period began with a lot of questions, some of which have already been answered less than 12 hours after beginning. I will wait a little while until I write about my annual NBA free agent rankings, so it will be easier to compile a complete list. Some of the big free agents agreed to new contracts just hours after free agency began so I will analyze some of those and discuss the teams they signed with and what else they are looking for.

San Antonio Spurs-Even after Coach/President Gregg Popovich told everyone he was not going to be awake for the start of free agency, the Spurs have been the busiest NBA team in the last half day. They resigned Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard to a 5 year deal much to no ones surprise. They then also resigned guard Danny Green to a four year which was not expected by many. Green struggled in last year's playoffs and was expected to be finding a new team this offseason, but the Spurs like retaining most of their players and Green will be coming back next year. The Spurs have also agreed to trade center Tiago Splitter to the Atlanta Hawks, to clear up some cap space so they could try to sign another free agent such as Lamarcus Aldridge. It is also unclear whether Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili will be coming back on one year deals to finish up their careers. Last but not least, will the Spurs bring back fan favorite Matt Bonner? That is yet to be decided, but I would count on it.

Toronto Raptors-After trading for Luke Ridnour yesterday and trading away Greivis Vasquez on draft night, the Raptors made the biggest signing so far this free agency for a player from another team. They reportedly signing forward Demarre Carroll, who had a great season for the Atlanta Hawks last year, to a four year deal worth around 60 million dollars. While Carroll has proven to be a great defensive presence and a good NBA player I have a feeling they might come to regret how much they are paying him. However, teaming him up with Kyle Lowry, Demar Derozen and Jonas Valenciunas will likely make the Raptors playoff bound once again next year.

Miami Heat-While the Dwyane Wade drama continues the Heat already have come to an agreement with their own free agent Goran Dragic. Bringing Dragic back is a great sign for the Heat especially with Chris Bosh coming back healthy next season. Luol Deng picked up his option and the Heat had a good draft pick last week so with Wade and one more contributing player able to come help, the Heat should be back in the playoffs next season.

Extensions-Two players who are not free agents, Anthony Davis and Damion Lillard, have agree to long term extensions with the New Orleans Pelicans and Portland Trail Blazers respectively. Both are for massive amounts of money, including Davis' extension which would make him the highest paid player in the league a couple of years from now.

Milwaukee Bucks-They reportedly agreed to resign forward Khris Middleton who improved vastly last year and became on of their best players. With Jared Dudley opting into his contract a couple of days ago and the Bucks have a few of their other young players returning they will likely be in a similar place to where they were last year, bottom of the playoff seeding. That is if Jason Kidd continues to do a great job as coach.

Chicago Bulls- The team resigned Mike Dunleavy to a three year deal amid rumors the Cavaliers really wanted to sign him. They also reportedly offered Jimmy Butler a max deal over 5 years which led to him canceling meetings with other teams and likely means he will remain a Bull. But with the same team next year, even with a new coach, how will the Bulls get passed the Cavaliers?

Other signings-The New Orleans Pelicans also resigned Alexis Ajinca to a four year deal.
The Brooklyn Nets have reportedly agreed to new contracts with both Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young. While both are good players the Nets will not have a lot of other money to spend unless they are able to trade Joe Johnson or Deron Williams.
Al-Farouq Aminu has agreed to a four year deal with the Portland Trail Blazers. This was one of the first agreements and Aminu has a large task coming into a team which lost Aldridge to free agency and trading away Nicolas Batum.

There will be a lot more signing over the next few hours, days and week. But the free agents everyone is looking at during this week are Lebron James, Kevin Love, Deandre Jordan, Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Tyson Chandler, Monte Ellis, Paul Pierce, Wade, Draymond Green, Paul Millsap and even Triston Thompson. We will see where they all end up because their choices will likely effect all of the other free agents.